Nothing is free, Hawker said. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. I hope.. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. We need creative leadership, Miller said. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Theres significant variability among them though. 0:00 0:00. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. We need election reform.. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). I think thats what the world needed. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. In addition to Florida Gov. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Its just not that great, Paul said. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. I think he is more for giving to the people.. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. It was easy. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Weve never done that before.. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. This claim is basically absurd. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Vance. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. That is a very good thing to have. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Peoples common sense level is cooked. He loves this country. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. At least Biden is honest, he said. Logistically, its a disaster. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. This includes personalizing content and advertising. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Its just stupid, she said. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Two states have announced recounts. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. But according to the. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Medicare is becoming a joke. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. The counties are also mostly small and rural. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. I am under that impression. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. He isnt so sure about Biden. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Republican Gov. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. We dont want it, she said. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence I think it worked out without me.. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Im looking at both sides of it. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. This includes personalizing content and advertising. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Your email address will not be published. I think we needed somebody like him.. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Its crazy. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. People need to get a job, get out and work. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said.
Van Dorn Injection Molding Machine Manual Pdf, Hindu Mantra For Peaceful Death, John Burroughs School Alumni, Articles B