Argentina's central bank had lifted restrictions on domestic issuers with debt maturities over US$1 million. (2), Bahamas - Off Shore Corporate default rate climbed in December. Please contact your Moodys representative or contact Moodys at one of the locations listed: Americas Client Desk: +1-212-553-1653 clientservices@moodys.com Asia Client Desk: +852-3551-3077 clientservices.asia@moodys.com The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Over the long term, the global weighted average Gini coefficient (a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon) was 82.6% over the one-year horizon, 75.4% over three years, 71.6% over five years, and 69.1% over seven years (see table 27). (2), Mexico Characteristic of an economic recovery year, most defaults were concentrated at the lowest ratings (see chart 3). (6), Rwanda On Oct. 19, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on China-based (Cayman Islands-incorporated) residential property developer Sinic Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CC' following nonrepayment of principal and interest on the company's US$250 million offshore senior unsecured notes due Oct. 18, 2021. (1), Iowa The median rating for all recently defaulted entities was solidly in the speculative-grade category in the seven years preceding default, and for most of that period, it was at least one notch below the long-term equivalent. As a supplement to many of the averages and time series presented in this study, standard deviations are also shown to provide a gauge of the dispersion of data behind these averages. (6), Ivory Coast On Nov. 2, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Irving, Texas-based business process automation company Exela Technologies Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC-'. is newington edinburgh a good place to live; how did tracy die in k911; southwood middle school yearbook; wellshire black forest ham nugget cooking instructions (7), Sri Lanka On April 16, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Texas-based oilfield services provider Basic Energy Services Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC-' after the company chose not to make an interest payment of US$16.335 million within a 30-day grace period. On Aug. 27, 2021, we revised our long-term issuer credit rating on Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. to 'D'. The probability of default (PD) is a credit risk which gives a gauge of the probability of a borrower's will and identity unfitness to meet its obligation commitments (Bandyopadhyay 2006 ). Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix. Later on the same day, we withdrew the issuer credit rating at the issuer's request. (2), Latvia The incremental liquidity, combined with improved debt-trading levels, made it less likely that AMC would pursue a subpar debt exchange or other forms of debt restructuring in the near future. On Sept. 27, 2021, we withdrew our long-term issuer credit rating at the company's request. (6), United Kingdom (389), West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) On Jan. 26, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on the issuer to 'CCC+' from 'SD' following the completion of the debt restructuring. Moody's Capital Markets Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation. Defaults arise disproportionately from low rating categories, and this holds true over longer time horizons (see table 14). And as a general rule, the highest proportions of rating changes for any given rating or rating modifier occur at adjacent ratings and rating modifiers. (9), Commonwealth of Independent States However, since 2008, speculative-grade ratings in Europe have surged, with the share more than doubling to 46.2% at the end of 2021. (6), Russia Several sectors have had distinct default cycles, such as the high technology/computers/office equipment sector and the telecommunications sector, which both fueled the prolonged spike in defaults during the tech bubble, when the global speculative-grade default rate reached 12.1% in June 2002. This was above the 77.4% annual average since 2010. (2), Higher Rates, Slower Growth (6), Iceland (6), Bosnia and Herzegovina However, the company's leverage position remained substantial with adjusted debt to EBITDA below 9x in 2021. If any defaulting entity reemerges from bankruptcy--or otherwise restructures its defaulted debt instruments, thereby reestablishing regular, timely payment of all its debts--we reenter this issuer into the database as a new entity. (6), Uzbekistan (2), Georgia Aerospace/automotive/Capital goods/metals. The downgrade followed the debt repurchases and announced below-par tender offer, which we viewed as a distressed debt exchange. For Q1 2023, the compass points toward further weakening. 2. Earlier, on Sept. 29, 2021, we lowered our long-term issuer credit rating on Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. to 'CCC' from 'B', reflecting substantial risk of nonrepayment of the company's debt obligations totaling US$760 million over the next six months. Default Trends - Global: February 2021 Default Report by Moody's Investors Service (MIS), the realized trailing 12-month default rate for global speculative grade reached 6.6% at the end of 2020. (1), Delaware (2), Paraguay (2), Senegal The downgrade followed ongoing negotiations on recapitalization or refinancing of the company's debt obligations ahead of its June 2021 interest payment on its senior secured notes. (2), Brunei Darussalam On Jan. 8, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Delaware-based quick-service restaurant operator and franchisor Burger BossCo Intermediate Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC'. Then, at the prompt, dial 866-330-MDYS (866-330-6397) The company had failed to make coupon payments on its outstanding U.S. dollar senior notes. Of the 60 companies that defaulted in 2021 that were rated at the start of the year, 50 (83%) were in the 'CCC'/'C' category, leading to a one-year global Gini ratio of 87.7%. On Oct. 4, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on New Jersey-based debt-issuing vehicle IPC Corp. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' due to a restructuring agreement on the company's second-lien debt. 4 DECEMBER 21, 2021 RATING METHODOLOGY : MOODY'S GLOBAL APPROACH TO RATING COLLATERALIZED LOAN OBLIGATIONS CLO s & STRUCTURED CREDIT weighted average of the remaining lives of the individual assets. (6), Guernsey (6), Lebanon The issuer exchanged a portion of its outstanding principal amount under first-lien credit facilities, nearly US$150 million, with preferred equity and paid another US$440 million with new debt and equity. We expected an improvement in EBITDA to improve the company's leverage position in the coming years. On May 10, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Delaware-based aircraft leasing company Voyager Aviation Holdings LLC to 'SD' from 'CC'. These compare with a Gini of 86.1% and a default rate of 5.5% in 2020. Ratings stability increased in 2021 to 75.1%, largely as a result of the low downgrade and default rates of 5.5% and 0.84%, respectively. Key Features The company had completed three projects in the fourth quarter of 2020, and another three projects were likely to be completed by 2021. With its highly developed financing markets, the U.S. also has a considerably higher share of speculative-grade companies than other regions--it accounted for 52.5% of speculative-grade companies globally at the beginning of 2021. This resolution would result in a material reduction of leverage, with debt to EBITDA of about 2x in 2021, compared with almost 20x in 2020 and about 10x in 2019. We calculated conditional default rates by dividing the number of issuers in a static pool that default at a specific time horizon by the number of issuers that survived (did not default) to that point in time. The average number of notches for an upgrade dipped to 1.12 in 2021 from 1.19 in 2020, while downgrades reached an average of 1.44 notches--only a fractional difference from 1.46 notches in 2020 (see chart 10). We would include this hypothetical company in the 1987 and 1988 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating on the issuer at the beginning of those years. These tables can also be constructed for each rating category. On the same day, we discontinued all our issuer credit ratings at the issuer's request. Following a year marked by one of the deepest recessions in the past 100 years, 2021 proved to be a year of better-than-expected economic recovery, despite the lingering COVID-19 pandemic. Transition studies have repeatedly confirmed that higher ratings tend to be more stable and that speculative-grade ratings ('BB+' or lower) generally experience more volatility over a given time frame. The Gini ratio is a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon, from one through seven years. This long-term corporate default and rating transition study uses the CreditPro database of long-term local currency issuer credit ratings. (6), Burkina Faso Even at the 10-year horizon, default rates among financial services through 2021 stayed below 3%. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. 2023 Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their affiliates and licensors. Not all of the lenders participated; about US$77 million in principal remained outstanding under first-lien term notes due April 2022, and US$9 million in principal remained for notes due 2023. *This column includes companies that were no longer rated one year prior to default. (See table 15 for the seven publicly rated investment-grade defaults during this period.) (2), Singapore On June 23, 2021, we lowered our issuer credit rating on Carlson Travel Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC'. Investment-grade ratings are proportionately more prevalent among financial services companies as well (relative to nonfinancials). We included such subsidiaries for the period during which they had a distinct and separate risk of default. (8), Armenia For both broad categories over the past three years, all of these defaulters were rated in the lowest rating categories several years ahead of their eventual default. On May 19, 2021, we raised the long-term issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' after the company completed the restructuring and issued a new CHF475 million subordinated loan due March 2027 provided by its shareholders. (2), Venezuela If this isn't what you are looking for, you can, Moody's Default and Ratings Analytics team publishes Moodys default studies, ratings transitions and ratings performance studies for corporates, financial institutions, sovereign and sub-sovereign, public finance and infrastructure sectors. Moody's (and other rating agencies) also reports default rates derived by calculating multi-period rating transition matrices . (2), Panama By telephone from the United States: Dial 1-866-330-MDYS (1-866-330-6397) By telephone from outside the United States: Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access code for your location. For example, leisure and media has a much higher proportion of speculative-grade ratings than financial institutions or insurance (see chart 22). That said, despite the increase in credit quality relative to 2020, the ratings distribution among companies we rate remained weak, with 14.5% of ratings at 'B-' or lower as of year-end, up from 7.4% 10 years earlier. Multiplying 93.03% by 96.89% results in a 90.14% survival rate to the end of the third year, which results in a three-year average cumulative default rate of 9.86%. Over that period, seven sectors have displayed average times to default that are lower than the overall average of 5.9 years: energy and natural resources; financial institutions; health care/chemicals; high technology, computers, and office equipment; leisure time and media; real estate; and telecommunications (see table 17). While the one-year default rate for nonfinancial companies has climbed above 3.5% in four cyclical peaks (1991, 2001-2002, 2009, and 2020), the annual default rate for financial services has remained below 2% since 1990 and below 1% for the past 12 years (see chart 20). The company announced that 59.79% of the bondholders of its outstanding US$413 million 8.5% senior unsecured notes due March 23, 2021, accepted the exchange offer, which the company made on Jan. 7, 2021. The number of 'AAA' rated issuers globally declined to just eight by the end of 2021 from 89 at the beginning of 2008. Entities that have had ratings withdrawn--that is, revised to not rated (NR)--are surveilled with the aim of capturing a potential default. The rating action reflected the absence of additional debt post-refinancing, which would reduce the company's leverage starting in 2021. Many events over the long term have contributed to the decline of global 'AAA' rated issuers. (1), US Late Credit Cycle Risks Historically, a growing concentration of speculative-grade ratings often precedes a period of increased defaults. (1), Vermont On July 12, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Peabody Energy Corp. to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the announcement of a tender offer to purchase up to US$13.281 million of its 8.5% senior secured notes due 2024 and a letter-of-credit revolving facility due 2024 at a discount to par. However, even when we limit the pool of new issuers to those that have never been rated before, speculative-grade issuers still account for 76% of the total. Through Dec. 31, 2021, 60 defaults came from the 2021 pool of rated financial and nonfinancial companies, and all of these were from the lowest rating categories--'B' and lower. As in most recovery periods, defaults fell relative to the prior year, with the S&P Global Ratings global speculative-grade corporate default rate falling below 2% for only the eighth time in the past 41 years, to 1.7% (see chart 1 and table 1). (2), Norfolk Island This issuer has far more debt outstanding that we do not rate (see table 5). (9), Indonesia (1), The Big Picture CLISA-Compania Latinoamericana de Infraestructura & Servicios S.A. Investimentos e Participacoes em Infraestrutura S.A. - Invepar. (6), Turkmenistan "Measuring the Credit Impact of Physical Risk for Corporates," Moody's Analytics, 2021. We project the rate will rise to 4.6% by January 2024 under our baseline scenario. The peak baseline estimate for the default rate was lowered from February 2021's 12.1% (as of early August 2020) to March -February 2021's 11.4% (as of early September). (103), Austria For instance, in table 32, the weighted average first-year default rate for all speculative-grade-rated companies for all 41 pools was 3.6%, meaning that an average of 96.4% survived one year. *U.S., Bermuda, and Cayman Islands. However, the two-year default rate column in table 24 is not the same as column 'D' of the average two-year transition matrix in table 34. Moody's EDF credit measures significantly outperforms agency ratings in measuring the probability of default, as well as statistical scoring models of all types. The issuer planned to restructure its US$267 million of debt through transactions that would help the company to sustain through the economic downturn brought on by COVID-19 and emerge from bankruptcy. (2), Bolivia The trailing-12-month and annual default rates have become standard measures, but default rates measured over shorter time frames give a more immediate picture of credit market conditions. It also exchanged a US$269 million second-lien term loan with common equity shares. (2), Congo, Democratic Republic of (DRC) The company raised $14 million of net proceeds after issuing $116 million. articles After the exchange, nonparticipatory lenders' notes (about 13% of the 2022 notes) would become junior to those of the lenders that participated. (2), San Marino Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Dec. 31, 1980, to avoid continuity problems. (2), Dominican Republic The company was still in talks with its creditors for waivers for selling its infrastructure division for US$2.15 billion. On May 10, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on the Switzerland-based airline catering service provider gategroup Holding AG to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the issuer restructured its loans. Tables 30, 31, and 32 are broken out by the broadest rating classifications (all rated, investment-grade, and speculative-grade). The negative outlook reflected our view that a near-term liquidity crisis or a distressed exchange could occur in the next six to 12 months if EBITDA levels did not pick up from their 2020 level or if cash collection deteriorated. With the decline, the total amount of affected debt also fell, to $66.3 billion, from $353.4 billion in 2020 (see chart 8). The two-year default rates in table 24 are calculated in the same way as those in the cumulative average section for the two-year column in table 32, while those in the 'D' column of table 34 are equivalent to adding up all the defaults behind the two-year column's annual default rates in table 32, divided by the sum of all the issuers in table 32 for the years 1981-2021. On Dec. 6, 2021, we withdrew our long-term issuer credit ratings on China Aoyuan Group Ltd. at the issuer's request. On Feb. 11, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Argentine oil and gas company YPF S.A. to 'SD' from 'CC'. Moody's Default & Recovery Database (DRD) contains the following data for 550,000 debts and 60,000 global sovereigns and corporate entities, including Real Estate, Insurance, and Financial Institutions. The default rates in table 34 are calculated as not conditional on survival, while those in table 24 are average default rates conditional on survival. The one-year Gini in 2021 was well above the one-year weighted average (since 1981) Gini ratio of 82.6% and higher than the median annual Gini ratio over the past 41 years of 85.7% (see table 2 and chart 32). Structured Finance - Global: March 2023 structured rating transitions ( Jan 1993 - Mar 2023) - Excel supplement. ), The one-year Gini ratio remained high in 2021 at 87.7% (see chart 5). (1), Colorado (2), Somalia Such rating categories with smaller populations will experience high rating transition rates when even a small number of issuers are upgraded or downgraded. Moody's CreditView is our flagship solution for global capital markets that incorporates credit ratings, research and data from Moody's Investors Service plus research, data and content from Moody's Analytics. Although defaulters that are not rated (NR) are not always captured in the default rate calculations for the year of default, we do capture them in the longer-term cumulative default rate statistics, which are tied back to the year in which defaulters were last rated. Its liquidity position was further pressured by worsening funding conditions and slower-than-expected asset disposals. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. (54), Jersey (2), Bermuda In line with expectations, the majority of companies that defaulted within one year of the original rating are from the lowest speculative-grade rating categories, 'B' and lower. The total repurchased value was about US$65.5 million of the US$375 million loan amount. 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