Perhaps (I would argue this is more likely) a new narrative arc would emergeWainwright, say, grits through physical pain to guide the Cardinals to the 2022 World Series and enters a level of folklore which allows voters to look optimistically upon his borderline statistical case (see: Ortiz, David). And right now, he simply isnt there. Arizona Diamondbacks. Were not concerned. DUNEDIN., Fla. Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left the spring training game against Tampa Bay with right knee discomfort. Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. But, while neither was young, per se, by baseball standards (it was deGroms age-30 season and Scherzers age-33), there is a big leap to get to Adam Wainwrights age-40 season which looms ahead. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. It is possible that he ends up as one of those players who hangs around the ballot for his decade of eligibility, getting a boost because of his time in St. Loius, but the only way he ends up in Cooperstown will be with a ticket. Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer just had seasons that good in 2018. St. Louis Cardinals analyst Brad Thompson joins Blair and Barker to talk about whether Adam Wainwright deserves a nod into the Baseball Hall of Fame, stating you can make the case for the veteran pitcher although hes not a sure-fire candidate yet. His contract (seven years, $175 million) ensures he will pitch in Seattle at least through 2019, but his velocity numbers and declining ERA suggest his career may be on the downside. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame induction? He had a 4.99 ERA in his last 11 starts in 2022 including a 7.22 ERA in his final six starts. Waino certainly isn't a National Hall of Famer, but there is an argument for the Cardinals Hall of Fame for sure. Replacing those lost or disrupted seasons with three average Wainwright seasons a 13-7 mark with 138 strikeouts over 164 innings would have Wainwright at 223-126 with 2,418 strikeouts. Once Molina has been. He has a $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, and to make the Hall of Fame, he may need another Cy Young award and a dominant performance in a World Series championship. As if on schedule, we have our first spring-training round of Is Anything Wrong? with the pitcher. Even 250 wins is a rare accomplishment at this point. March 2, 2023 | 00:00:10. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe and Mastodon @jay_jaffe. MILWAUKEE -- Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. Updated: Friday, March 3, 2023 11:11 PM ET, Park Factors The best pitcher in MLB? No harm. Still, just one top-10 Cy Young award finish wont get him in the Hall of Fame. Decade-plus Eagles writer. We've sent an email with instructions to create a new password. If hes still got the stuff and durability to get to 3,000, the rest of the numbers might fall into place. Theres a good chance no pitcher will again crack the 300-win plateau, a mark that has been achieved 24 times throughout the sports history. That being said, the question I had is what a retirement for Adam Wainwright . Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated. Guerrero had an RBI single during the first inning in his lone at-bat. Hey, at least the Cardinals added a proven, quality big-league starting pitcher this past offseason. Wainwright could become the sixth to add the Hall of Fame to their resume. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted However, not all stories have happy endings. All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, thats the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. . Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame. 2020 has given us many. We always prefer to go the surgery route as the last possible resort. Bumgarner has thrown 36 career innings in the World Series and allowed one earned run. Its my belief that this as-yet-unnamed metric which Im hoping to formalize in time for the upcoming election cycle does a better job of emphasizing closers rather than starters-turned-relievers who racked up significant WAR in the rotations before making the move to roles more fireman-like than closer-like; it bumps the likes of Tom Gordon, Ellis Kinder, Bobby Shantz, and Kerry Wood down several pegs. He missed large chunks of his playing career due to injuries, and while this has not always been a deal-breaker for Cooperstown, Wainwrights perfectly fine peak was hardly that of go-to example Sandy Koufax. The ageless Bartolo Colon leads all active pitchers with 235, CC Sabathia is next at 230, and then its down to John Lackey at 180. If he misses the first week or so, no big deal. The Cardinals looked like one of the best teams in the National League throughout the 2022 regular season, finishing with a record of 93-69, winning the NL Central Division in the process. Terms of Service. Zack Greinke has had an interesting career. But at least it wont be historically egregious. He's a hell of a pitcher and even better human being. What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. Because he didnt debut until about five weeks before his 26th birthday, hes short in the two traditional stat categories, wins (77) and strikeouts (1,505), that tend to matter to voters, but as Ive argued, particularly if he can nab a third Cy Young, his will be something of a Koufaxian candidacy, where his career totals will matter less than the peak dominance. Its a shame because he was off to a great start to his season, with 1.9 WAR and a 195 OPS+ in just 36 games. Your email address will not be published. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, he may be the most dominant pitcher in the game right now; FanGraphs credits Scherzer with more WAR than any non-Kershaw pitcher (25.9) since 2013. PITTSBURGH, PA - AUGUST 28: Adam Wainwright #50 of, the St. Louis Cardinals applauds after a defensive play by Nolan Arenado #28 in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on August 28, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. DRS changes, injuries, and the shortened season have dealt the slugging third basemans case a set of blows in recent years, making it even harder to overcome his late start. Heres hoping this isnt the start of a Ken Griffey Jr.-like slog through the second half of his career. After nearly two seasons in the wilderness, he regained his dominant form with the Cubs, and while hes scuffled since being traded to the White Sox while pitching in a setup role in front of Liam Hendriks, his 2.02 ERA, 2.24 FIP, and 43.2% strikeout rate make this his best season since 2017 and put him in line for another substantial free-agent payday if the White Sox decline his $16 million club option. Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. Injuries have me dubious that Chris Sale will ever accumulate the WAR necessary to reach the Cooperstown threshold, but hes only barely going to be 33 come Opening Day, so Im not closing the book just yet. FASTBALLS JET ACROSS the baseball atmosphere in this era, booming into catchers' mitts at 100 mph or faster, and amid that sound of speed, there is Adam Wainwright's curveball. This year he was so good that he accrued 5.1 WAR (including 0.6 on the offensive side) in his 15 starts before going down, his fourth-highest total. The key number regarding Gooden is 48.0, which is the average of his career bWAR, his bWAR7, his career fWAR, and his fWAR7. The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. Before going down, he made solid progress towards the 200-win and 3,000 strikeout milestones; hes at 184 and 2,653, respectively, the latter thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate, his best since 2016. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. Wainos going to do that whether hes here or not, and thats a trust thing that Im not concerned with.. All Wins Above Replacement and Wins Above Average data comes . Hell get some work in between now and then, and hopefully that will get him on track. On 30-8-1981 Adam Wainwright (nickname: Adam) was born in Brunswick, Georgia, United States. Even so, five catchers including the younger and still-productive Buster Posey outrank him in the framing-inclusive version of my metric, and with an 80 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR this year, plus plans to retire after 2022, he might not even catch Russell Martin (49.1) or Joe Mauer (49.3) in the rankings. Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. At least hes in better shape than 31-year-old Freddie Freeman (41.8/32.1/37.0, +1.5 JAWS), who only recently surpassed last years 3.3 WAR. I found by Retrosheet. I took a look at 10 active starting pitchers with borderline Hall of Fame resumes and broke down their odds of enshrinement. For this dispatch, Ill first turn my attention to the pitchers, then backtrack to cover a handful of others position players and pitchers in a more lightning-round fashion. By either that mark or traditional reliever JAWS, the 33-year-old Kimbrel is the biggest gainer this year. While I dont think the statistical mistake that was inducting Rick Ferrell means that we should induct Mickey Tettleton, in my perfect world we would have sixteen Hall of Famers at the catcher position, though the ones who are in would be different (for instance, among the currently eligible, Gene Tenace would be there), and we would go from there. The Hall of Stats was built by Adam Darowski, Jeffrey Chupp, and Michael Berkowitz.Follow the Hall of Stats on Twitter or Facebook.The Hall of Stats is open sourced on GitHub.All data is also open and available as a free download. The veteran right-hander is the last remaining . Adam Wainwright has the second-most WAR of any Cardinals pitcher all-time (44.5). Rile people up.. Guerrero was seen walking toward the clubhouse with an athletic trainer in the second inning and was replaced defensively by Rainer Nunez to start the third. . Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C. Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis. The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). While a Cy Young Award does not guarantee entry, it certainly helps. His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. Its early in spring training. Central Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto headlines the list of players in the National League West who are on track to have a chance to make it into baseball's Hall of Fame. Me talking about it is going to inflame some people Hes not a Hall of Famer! Wainwright said. All rights reserved. NeverSober1900. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Annual promotional dates for the Purina Pooches in the Ballpark game and Edward Jones Cardinals Hall of Fame Weekend are scheduled for April 30 and August 26-28, respectively. Prices highlights include a 2012 Cy Young award, two ERA titles, and five 200-strikeout seasons. Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? He probably wont gain much more ground this year even assuming he does return, and as with the pitchers on either side of him in this list, free agency looms, though it seems unthinkable the Dodgers will let him depart. We use cookies to improve your experience. Adam Wainwright is not a Hall of Famer yet. But until we see Jack pitching in games against opposing hitters in game conditions down there in Florida and recovering on time to do it again, and again, and again Ill have to take the wait-and-see approach. Josh Donaldson, third base (43.8 career | 41.2 Peak | 42.5 JAWS, +1.5 JAWS). And if the Sox do pick up his option, he is by no means a lock to pass Eckersley in saves next year if Hendriks gets most of the chances. Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. On Wednesday, I took a swing at a question often asked of me: Which players have helped their Hall of Fame cases the most this year? Albert Pujols is, barring something unforseen, going to easily sail into the National Baseball Hall of FameI always feel the need to add a caveat since uncodified steroid accusations have already kept one of the few modern hitters unreservedly superior to Pujols out of the Hall of Fame, though seeing David Ortiz make it does give me hope that Albert Pujols being a nice guy that everyone in baseball media seems to like would provide sufficient cushion to whatever random conjecture somebody wants to throw out into the discourse. How Corbin Burnes became an ace by making his bed, Top moments from Brady, Manning, Jordan and other athletes hosting 'Saturday Night Live', Fantasy baseball rankings, projections, strategy and cheat sheets, Spring batting averages, runs up amid shift limits. It is not as though a 6.4 WAR season alone would do the trickwhile this would put Wainwright over 50 bWAR and at 56.4 fWAR (assuming he hit 6.4 on both metrics), the impact on Wainwrights peak would be much smaller, since he was reasonably good in his seventh best season under both metrics (3.0 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR). Strasburgs 2.86 FIP suggests hes outperformed his 3.18 ERA, and his strikeout rate has been stellar. . He made his 55 million dollar fortune with All-Star, St. Louis Cardinals, NL wins leader. Of course, Wainwright and the Cardinals gave it the nothing to see here treatment. But the guys that have got in recently just have been the best at the craft for a decade, Wainwright said. Adam Parrish Wainwright was born on August 30, 1981, in Brunswick, Georgia. Hes actually been tougher to hit than in any season since 2016, but his 14% walk rate has created more traffic than ever, and hes blown five of 35 save chances, though three of those were in consecutive outings in mid-July, accounting for seven of the 16 earned runs hes allowed. {* traditionalSignIn_signInButton *}, Comment and participate in our online community. Mike Trout, center field (76.2 career | 65.1 Peak | 70.6 JAWS, +0.5 JAWS). Among those who are retired and eligible for Cooperstown, the 65th greatest starter of all-time is actually a pretty sufficiently big nameDwight Gooden. Sale went two years and a day between major league outings due to elbow inflammation, a flexor tendon strain, and Tommy John surgery, but hes made a solid return so far, with a 2.53 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate through four starts. He, of course, can retract this, but as he is now in his 40s, Im inclined to believe hes serious. (And hes been getting his work in, at least for the most part.) It happens a lot. Ive lost track. At least not for starting pitchers. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. The baseball player is married to Jenny Curry, his starsign is Virgo and he is now 41 years of age. A Hall of Fame-bound pitcher is slated to take the mound in the top of the first inning of tonights NL wild card game. He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011. Chapman notched his 300th save on August 26, but hes had an unimpressive season, walking 16.2% of hitters en route to a 3.68 ERA and 4.16, all career worsts. Sure there are. 100-70, 2.99 ERA, 1,409 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. Thats an average of 174 innings per year. Adam Wainwright Stats. But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn't be used as the new . That seems to be a pretty good baseline.. Molina should make the Baseball Hall of Fame while Wainwright will probably fall short, but even so, we need to enjoy the final season with the longtime battery mates on the . None. Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. He trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, a grand slam in the first inning and a solo shot in the fourth. Saturday marked the end of an era for the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's left behind. As a result, Ive chosen not to include him on this article. Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire. For the last 35 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans. Ill assume that FanGraphss weirdly defensive stance against Wainwrights pursuit of bulletin board material has subsided by then. "Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires." - Connor Looker Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to. Im going to disregard them for now, though all five should (and all but Sabathia probably will) make it eventually. Adam Wainwright is the quintessential "Hall of Fame candidate for Cardinals fans" Hall of Fame candidate of the current team. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. Wins may not matter as much these days, but his 195 wins would make him just the seventh player to be inducted as a starting pitcher with fewer than 200 victories. Follow Cody Swartz on Twitter (@cbswartz5). He was the MVP of the 2014 World Series after two dominant starts and then five scoreless innings off the bench in Game 7, and hes been a key contributor to three championship teams. The performance was unsurprisingly unsustainable. He was traded to St. Louis in 2003 from the Braves in a deal that saw outfielder J.D. Hes also climbed from 12th to ninth in saves (372) and should easily move past Joe Nathan (377) and Dennis Eckersley (390) within the next year. And I finally reached the point where I just ignored the spin and started to interpret the lack of candor as a possible warning sign. Its early, its the process, hell be ready to go when its time to go. Its available on your preferred podcast platform. Gerrit Cole (117 wins at age 31) and Chris Sale (114 wins at age 32) are the likeliest active pitchers to approach Wainwrights total. Only Clemens, Johnson, Carlton and Greg Maddux are the only pitchers who have won more. Look at that. St. Louis Cardinals news fromFanSided Daily, Former San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval heading to LBPRC, Aroldis Chapmans time with New York Yankees comes to inglorious end, Wild Card wrap-up: Mets, Cardinals regular-season paper tigers, Opening Odds for MLB Division Series (Every Team's Odds to Win the ALDS, NLCS), St. Louis Cardinals: Oli Marmol's perfect quote about Wild Card Game 2, Phillies-Cardinals: Bryce Harper wants just 1 thing from Yadier Molina, Decision points: The key moments from Friday's MLB Wild Card games. He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. According to tracking done by Baseball Reference he faced mostly Double A hitters. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. He just turned 30 on August 7, and hes already fifth in JAWS and third in peak among center fielders, but this has been largely a lost year due to a right calf strain thats already required the longest recovery time in at least six years. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). The minute Adam Wainwright is eligible, he will easily cruise into the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, with the only possible road block being if he gets caught in the midst of a logjam with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (though if the Cardinals were ever going to make an exception and admit three people in one year, this would seemingly be the case). Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. This is a question that has been frequently raised throughout the season as the Cardinals' 'Big Three' (Pujols, Wainwright, Molina) were constantly praised by St. Louis fans. Halladay and Martinez combined to win five Cy Youngs had more dominant peaks than Wainwright, but their status as first-ballot Hall of Famers serve as evidence the electorate is already modifying its standards for Hall-worthy starting pitchers. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. His career just does not stack up to that level. Its just hard to pitch that long nowadays, without injuries especially. Be the first one to comment on this story. His cutter was next, dropping from his 2022 average of 84.3 mph to 80.8 mph, and his curveball decreased from 72.9 mph to 70.2 mph.. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. Or could it be that a lot of this is happening because Wainwright is 41 years old and headed to his 42nd birthday on Aug. 30? By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder what might have been if not for the injuries that effectively cost him three seasons from ages 29 to 36. An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. King Felix is still just 31 years old, despite close to 2,500 innings on his right arm. But Wainwright still had good value because he supplied 192 innings. If this is the end, Wainwright is leaving behind a solid career. However, per his stats, it would not be surprising if he is inducted in his first year of eligibility. No ones winning 300 games again, probably, Maybe there will be a couple guys that have a chance Claytons got a chance, Max maybe. Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. Hes produced 5.0 WAR with his pitching but -0.6 WAR with his hitting with a remarkable .000/.000/.000 line taking this no-hitter thing a bit too literally through 50 PA; on Wednesday night, he surpassed Wei-Yin Chens record for season-opening futility, set in 2016. 1:09 | September 14, 2022 St. Louis Cardinals analyst Brad Thompson joins Blair and Barker to talk about whether Adam Wainwright deserves a nod into the Baseball Hall of Fame, stating you. He was merely a good pitcher on the Detroit Tigers, vastly overshadowed by teammate Justin Verlander. Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday.
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